My Take on the Presidential Debates now that they’re over

The end of the republic and its participatory democracy depends on what kind of president Hillary Clinton (HC) turns out to be if elected, and if the Democrats can take back at least one of the Houses of Congress and hold it.  That will be difficult since the GOP has gerrymandered the states they control to rig local and state elections that keeps them in power (watch the video with this post about how they did it).

If Hillary turns out to be a great president, who isn’t owned by Wall Street as her critics repeatedly allege, then she’ll be in a position to extend America’s lifespan as a republic. After all, as NPR reported, the Clintons have weathered: Whitewater, 1992; Travelgate, 1993; Vince Foster’s Death, 1993; Paula Jones/Monica Lewinsky, 1994; Filegate, 1996; Behngahzi, 2012; the Clinton Foundation, 2015, and the Private Email Server, 2015. For details, click the NPR link above to read their report dated June 21, 2016.

If Donald Trump (DT) wins the White House, the American experiment as a republic with a participatory democracy is over, but that is a very long shot unless DT, Wikileaks, and/or Putin have some serious dirt on HC that will blow her out of the saddle. That dirt, true or not, will have to be powerful enough to overcome all the scandals that Trump keeps adding to his pile of dung, as women continue to reveal more alleged sexual abuse in An Exhaustive List of the Allegations Women Have Made Against Donald Trump.

As for DT coming out of the third debate looking better, the answer is no.  He played to his audience, the deplorables, repeating lies, repeating myths that have never been proven, repeating he can fix everything and only he can do it; she’s a lair, a crook, but he did not appeal to most if not all of the undecideds.

DT did manage to stay behind his podium and control the sniffles that he has claimed, after the other debates, didn’t happen (what a sad-sack of a disgraceful clown this freak of the underworld is). I think, only twice did he actually sniffle in the 3rd debate, and then managed to cut the sniffles short.

His daughter, the one he wants to date and probably grope if he hasn’t already done it, or his entire family, must have sat on him before the debate so he wouldn’t sniff cocaine to boost a bully’s courage. They probably wouldn’t even let him go to the bathroom alone.

But DT double blew it when he refused to say he’d accept the outcome of the election.  He blew it again by disagreeing with the moderator more than once, a conservative FOX network moderator who tossed facts at DT proving Trump wrong more than once, that The Donald refused to accept, or ignored, as he plowed on with his long list of conspiracy theories.

With several screens open, I also fact checked DT on a few  of his always wrong claims, and after the debate, I read what Nate Silver’s site FiveThirtyEight had to say about the debate as the misinformation and/or lies poured out of Trump’s mouth like dirty, greasy, brackish toilet water.

For instance, Trump claimed the women’s allegations, not counting the latest allegation of sexual misconduct that appeared the day after the 3rd debate, had been debunked, but none of the fact checkers found anything to support that latest lie.  The only thing the fact checkers found was a witness on that flight where DT allegedly groped the women sitting next to him. That man said he didn’t see anything happen. Where was this guy seated?  Was he watching DT and the woman every single second? To discover how invalid a more than 30 year old memory is when nothing significant happens, I suggest reading what Oliver Sacks has to say on the subject of the accuracy of memory in Speak, Memory published by The New York Review of Books in February 2013.


How Republicans set up a decade-long advantage over Democrats

I know enough about how faulty our memoires are to know that this alleged witness probably didn’t even remember flying that day. I mean, do you remember what you were doing more than 30 years ago in detail unless some alleged billionaire, celebrity pervert gave you a reason to remember by sticking his hand up your skirt while reaching for and/or fondling your vagina.

Even Donald Trump probably doesn’t remember the women he has fondled and groped because there have been so many.

Nate Silver has repeatedly pointed out after every debate that it takes about a week for the results to come in through polls to find out if a debate made a difference in public opinion, so we have to wait a few days to see if the odds change dramatically in DT’s favor, or not.

Silver said he was following the overseas betting sites before, during, and after the debate. “Betting markets are completely unmoved so far,” Silver said, “showing almost same odds they did half an hour before the debate (Trump’s at 17.1 percent to win the election now, as compared with 17.4 percent before). Does that mean it’s a draw so far? I don’t know. Trump’s been better on the substance than he was in the first two debates. But he’s also been on the verge of losing his temper on a couple of occasions. And Clinton’s probably had her most consistent performance so far.”

What an underworld freak Donald Trump is, because he can’t be human, a creature of nature.

_______________________

Lloyd Lofthouse is the award-winning author of My Splendid Concubine [3rd edition]. This is the unique love story Sir Robert Hart didn’t want the world to discover. Based on a true story.

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Where Does Donald Trump Find the Most Support?

According to 24/7 Wall St.com the 10 states with the Most Hate Groups are:

  1. Louisiana
  2. Virginia
  3. Kentucky
  4. Alabama
  5. South Carolina
  6. Tennessee
  7. New Jersey
  8. Idaho
  9. Arkansas
  10. Mississippi

Then there are the top 10 states with the most gun violence:

  1. Tennessee
  2. New Mexico
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Wyoming
  5. Arkansas
  6. Montana
  7. Alabama
  8. Mississippi
  9. Louisiana
  10. Alaska

How many of those states, according to Nate Silver’s Forecast on FiveThirtyEight.com (on 10-8 @ 9:46 a.m.) support Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and what are the odds.

Only New Jersey (95.9 percent to 4.1 percent for Donald Trump), New Mexico (93 percent to 6.2 percent for Trump), and Virgina (90.1 percent to 9.1 percent for Trump) are forecast to support Hillary Clinton.

The rest of the top 10 most racist and gun violent states are all solidly behind Donald Trump helping explain why they support this racist, bully, misogynistic, serial liar, and fraud.

  1. Alaska (71.8 percent) and Mississippi (94.1 percent)
  2. Louisiana (96 percent) and Arkansas (98 percent)
  3. Mississippi (see 1st place) and Idaho (98.8 percent)
  4. Alabama (99.6 percent)
  5. Montana (98 percent) and Tennessee (96.3 percent)
  6. Arkansas (see 2nd place) and South Carolina (86.1 percent)
  7. Wyoming (98 percent) and Alabama (see 4th place)
  8. Oklahoma (99.3 percent) and Kentucky (96.6 percent)
  9. Both New Mexico and Virginia are forecast to support Hillary Clinton
  10. Tennessee (see 5th place) and Louisiana (see 2nd place)

What about the ten most uneducated states? For that answer I take you back to 24/7 WallSt.com.

Starting with last place:

  1. West Virginia (the forecast is 99.1 percent for Trump)
    49. Mississippi (the forecast is 95.1 percent for Trump)
    48. Arkansas (the forecast is 98 percent for Trump)
    47. Kentucky (the forecast is 96.6 percent for Trump)
    46. Louisiana (the forecast is 96 percent for Trump)
    45. Nevada (the forecast is 31.2 percent for Trump)
    44. Alabama (the forecast is 99.6 percent for Trump)
    43. Oklahoma (the forecast is 99.3 percent for Trump)
    42. Indiana (the forecast is 89.1 percent for Trump)
    41. Idaho (the forecast is 98.9 percent for Trump)

Now that you have these facts, what do you think the reason is that Trump has so much support in most of these top ten most violent, most racist and least educated states?

_______________________

Lloyd Lofthouse is a former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Veteran, with a BA in journalism and an MFA in writing, who taught in the public schools for thirty years (1975 – 2005).

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Lofthouse’s first novel was the award winning historical fiction My Splendid Concubine [3rd edition]. His second novel was the award winning thriller Running with the Enemy followed by his award winning memoir Crazy is Normal.

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The Odds of Donald Trump Winning the White House

I’m an independent voter, and I am not registered with any party. In the past, the Democrats allowed independents to vote in their primaries—the GOP never has—but I’ve read that this year, independents like me, that make up the largest voting block in the United States, have been shut out of the primary process in the Democratic Party too. I hope what I heard isn’t true.

According to Gallop, 43% of registered voters are political independents. Registered Republicans make up 26% and Democrats 30%.  There are more than 146 million registered voters in the United States and in 2012, 126.144 million voted (almost 219 million Americans are eligible to vote but only those who are registered to vote, who vote, really count), and about 87% of registered voters turned out to vote in 2012. Gallup

If this is true, then the two major parties have locked out the largest block of registered voters (62.35 million) when it comes to the primary selection process that helps determine who runs for president.

  • 43.5 million are registered Democrats
  • 37.7 million are registered Republicans

It’s obvious to me that in the general election, it will be independent voters that will decide what candidate wins the popular vote. However, 538 hand-picked Americans that belong to the Electoral College, have the final power to decide who the next president will be. The following video shows how the Electoral College Works and why our votes can mean nothing when it comes to electing a president.

The process for selecting electors varies throughout the United States. Generally, the political parties nominate electors at their State party conventions or by a vote of the party’s central committee in each State. Electors are often selected to recognize their service and dedication to their political party, and Trump is a Republican in name only and a GOP outsider.

What this means is even if Donald Trump (DT) won the popular vote—that I think is highly unlikely—in an election against the Democratic candidate, DT could still lose in the Electoral College.

Knowing these facts, I think the odds of DT becoming president are slim to none and here’s why:

According to Gallup, 26% of registered voters belong to the GOP and another 30% belong to the Democratic Party. Sure, DT gets a lot of media attention because he is winning in GOP primaries, but what does that really mean?

For instance, Pew Research Center reported that through the first 12 primaries, GOP turnout had included 17.3 percent of eligible voters. That translates to 6.57 million registered voters. In addition, Trump has 680 delegates versus 733 for the three GOP candidates still running against him. That means Trump has, so far, earned 48% of 26% meaning that about 18 million registered Republicans might support DT.

AND, this is a big AND, Nate Silver says that Donald Trump is really unpopular with General Election Voters.

Nate Silver says, “Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a – (minus) 70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.) fivethirtyeight.com

If Trump managed to become the GOP candidate for President in 2016, he may go down in history as the biggest loser ever with about 20 million votes to almost 100 million for the Democratic candidate.  In addition, considering that the president is really selected by the 538 members of the Electoral College, I think Trump has less than a 1% chance of becoming president.


Donald Trump told CNN’s Chris Cuomo that if he doesn’t get the nomination after a brokered convention, there would be riots.

Will DT urge his followers to riot if he doesn’t win the White House, and will his Tea Party followers set America on fire if they don’t get their man elected?

_______________________

Lloyd Lofthouse is a former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Veteran,
who taught in the public schools for thirty years (1975 – 2005).

Crazy is Normal promotional image with blurbs

Where to Buy

Lofthouse’s first novel was the award winning historical fiction My Splendid Concubine [3rd edition]. His second novel was the award winning thriller Running with the Enemy followed by his award winning memoir Crazy is Normal.

To follow this Blog via E-mail see upper left-hand column and click on “FOLLOW!”