Blue vs Red America

It’s 2:10 AM and I couldn’t sleep. I was thinking: How many Americans live in blue states vs red states according to Nate Silver’s Who will win the presidency? map?

There were other things flowing through my head that had nothing to do with the 2016 election, but when I decided to get up and attempt to wear myself out so I could go back to sleep, this is what I decided to do: tally the populations of the blue vs. red states.

I’m sure there will be Trump supporters, if they can read above 3rd grade level (the grade level for this post is 8.2 and it will take 2.29 minutes to read this post according to readablity-score.com), who will disagree with Nate Silver’s 2016 Election Forecasts, and that’s okay. They probably don’t know that Nate Silver’s track record for calling elections is close to 100%.  In addition, Nate Silver says that the further out from an election we are, the higher the odds are that his forecasts could be wrong. In addition, Silver doesn’t rely on just one reputable poll, he looks at all of them from regional to state to national and runs those numbers through an algorithm 20,000x each time (for Trump’s supporters: computers crunch numbers much faster than humans using their fingers and toes) to come up with forecasts that can change several times a day.

Anyway, after counting the populations of the 28 blue states on Silver’s forecast map, the total was about 211 million (66.3 percent of the population) with 107 million (33.6 percent) living in red states.

I know that there will be Trump supporters in every state, but that doesn’t matter. What counts is the 538 Electoral College votes (hover your curser over Silver’s map to discover how many Electoral Votes each state has), and if the majority of voters in a state go for one candidate most or all of the Electoral College votes go to that candidate.

I suspect that this is where Trump, if he were reading this post, would pull one of his ignorant Trumpism lies and Tweet out that it was corrupt and unconstitutional for 538 people to decide who the next president was going to be, because he and most of his supporters probably have no idea that this is what the American Founding Fathers wrote in the U.S. Constitution back in the 18th century when they were deciding what type of government we’d have.

Then there is the fact that Georgia and Arizona are clearly battle ground states and Hillary could lose them by the time November rolls around.  But those two states only have about 16.6 million people, and that still leaves the blue states with about 61 percent of the U.S. population.

Nate Silver is probably biased in favor of Hillary Clinton, but that doesn’t change the numbers unless he’s manipulating them.  And he wasn’t manipulating the numbers when the Forecast, soon after the GOP convention, favored Trump to win by a small margin.

That was something that changed after the Democratic convention and Trump’s attack on the parents of a fallen American Muslim hero who sacrificed his life for his troops in Iraq back in 2004 when G. W. Bush was president. Did you know that Trump’s campaign blamed the death of Army Captain Humayun Khan on the policies of President Obama and Hillary Clinton? Obama was elected president four years after the captain’s death.

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Lloyd Lofthouse is a former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Veteran, with a BA in journalism and an MFA in writing, who taught in the public schools for thirty years (1975 – 2005).

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3 thoughts on “Blue vs Red America

  1. Lloyd, in my opinion, this election may split the GOP. The more rational Republicans will try to regain control of their party. I suspect that the Trumpites will either try to rid the party of the more rational elements when they lose the election or form a third party. They will call those who supported Hillary traitors and try to purge them. If the Trumpites fail, they will leave and form a party that will make the No Nothing Party appear erudite. It saddens me that about 40 percent of the population has no ability to make connections. Today on Facebook, a friend who supports Trump wrote “When Trump is through, any American who does not believe in freedom will hang from the nearest tree. I wrote to him and told him to look up Robespierre. He wrote back and said, “I won’t give that French ISIS terrorist the time of day.”

    • I’ve been thinking the same. The dyed in the wool, ignorant, uneducated, functionally illiterate fools that will follow Trump no matter what he says will create their own party and Trump will lead them or turn the leadership over the daughter he wants to date, appoint to his cabinet if elected, possibly marry, and have children with.

      “Today on Facebook, a friend who supports Trump wrote “When Trump is through, any American who does not believe in freedom will hang from the nearest tree.”

      Send this to that friend: “A former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Vet who believes in freedom and thinks Trump doesn’t, says any Trumpster traitor that comes for him to hang him from the nearest tree because he disagrees with Trump and his stupid supporters will face death or severe injury, because that former Marine will take as many of Trump’s ignorant, racist followers with him, and he has the weapons to do it, starting from a long distance before the idiots even get close to his house.”

      Due to Nate Silver’s track record in the 2008 and 2012 elections, I follow his Blog, and this morning Trump was down below an 11% chance to win the election. This afternoon, Trump was up above 13 percent, and I think that is linked to his latest ignorant, misleading, lying foreign policy speech, because his staunchest supporters want to believe the crap he dishes out.

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-election

      Trump has all ready dealt with the media by telling his brain dead, racist, ignorant supporters that the media is biased and determined to make Trump lose the election, so those fools will not turn to the fact-check sites or any media site to verify anything Trump says. To them, anything the media says is part of the conspiracy to make sure Trump loses.

      Fact-Checking Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Speech

      http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-donald-trumps-foreign-policy-speech/story?id=41397433

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