Another Sky-is-Falling Guru

Do pessimists get more attention in the traditional media and on the Internet than optimists?

CNBC featured another “sky-is-falling” expert (so-called) in US Economy Going from Bad to Worse: Roubini

Why does the media focus on these losers? You may wonder what I mean by Roubini being a loser since he garners so much media attention.

Even the New York Times published a piece with a headline that shouted, Dr. Doom, and said, “Roubini’s critical and consistently bearish economic views have earned him the nicknames “Dr. Doom” and “permabear” in the media.

This is the second prediction of a financial advisor that I have written about and Roubini appears to be worse at predicting the future than the first guy I wrote about in The Earning Power of Predictions

If you want to know the details, I recommend reading Nouriel Roubini Was Wrong, Again, and Again and Again.

“Dr. Doom”

Here are a two pull quotes from that post: “Update May 19, 2011: Okay, this has become as easy as hitting the side of a barn with a baseball. Now, more than two years later, Roubini’s predictions made late in the financial crisis and documented below couldn’t be looking much worse. More importantly, any investors who followed his advice have taken a bath (that means they lost a lot of money) . Since he stated that stocks were engaging in a sucker’s rally, U.S. and global stock prices have doubled!

“Update October 30, 2009: Oil has climbed above $80 per barrel this month so Roubini’s January prediction that it would stay below $40 for all of 2009 ain’t looking too sharp just now.”

You may want to click over to Eric Tyson.com and read the rest of the facts about Dr. Doom being wrong again and again.

Why does the major media focus on so called guru’s of doom and gloom who are often wrong way more than they are right instead of someone that is right more than they are wrong?

Is the answer Yellow Journalism or the fact that one large-scale scientific study concluded that “pessimists” live longer healthier lives than optimists do? Source: Recruiter.com on Hiring Pessimists


Another opinion about who lives longer—a pessimist or an optimist?

As for me, I suspect I’m more of a pessimist than an optimist as I’m always expecting the worst to happen, while writing goals that aim for success and then working to make those goals materialize. To me, if you do not do anything, the glass is empty–not half full or half empty.

_______________________

Lloyd Lofthouse, a former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Veteran, is the award winning author of The Concubine Saga.

His latest novel is Running with the Enemy. Blamed for a crime he did not commit while serving in Vietnam, his country considers him a traitor. Ethan Card is a loyal U.S. Marine desperate to prove his innocence or he will never go home again.

And the woman he loves and wants to save was trained to hate and kill Americans.

To follow this Blog via E-mail see upper left-hand column and click on “FOLLOW!”

The Earning Power of Predictions

It seems that no matter how many predictions one makes, all one has to is be right one time with the right prediction. It’s called playing the odds.

On AT&T Yahoo Finance’s Breakout, Peter Schiff predicted America is headed toward a financial collapse worse than 2008 and Europe.

The reason that Schiff gets so much attention is because he predicted the real-estate crises of 2007-2008, and he was right—that time.

However, Schiff has made other predictions and the odds are that if one makes enough predictions, he or she will be right eventually no matter how many times he or she is wrong.

None of the hosts of Breakout mentioned Peter Schiff’s track record of making predictions, but I checked and discovered that of SEVENTEEN predictions, Schiff has been wrong TEN times and TWO of his predictions are still to be determined. He has been correct FIVE times, so he is right 33.3% of the time and wrong 66.6% of the time (not counting the “to be determined”). Source: Wall Street Economists

 

Card counters in Las Vegas have better odds of winning at blackjack (a typical card counter has an advantage over the house of approximately 1% to 2.5%, which means the card counter’s odds are 51% – 52.5% to the casino’s 47.5% – 49%).

Why do we pay so much attention to guys like Schiff? Maybe because Schiff is worth $70 million, but how did he make this kind of money being wrong two-thirds of the time?

According to Celebrity Networth.com, Peter Schiff earned his net worth through the writing of his books on economics, television appearances, and as CEO of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. (adviser Michael Shedlock reported, “I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008.”)

He did not earn his money being right with his predictions one-third of the time. With a track record like that, would you pay Schiff to give you advice or buy one of his books? Not me.

Then again, maybe I should start making predictions.

Discover The True Value of American Idol

_______________________

Lloyd Lofthouse, a former U.S. Marine and Vietnam Veteran, is the award winning author of The Concubine Saga.

His latest novel is Running with the Enemy. Blamed for a crime he did not commit while serving in Vietnam, his country considers him a traitor. Ethan Card is a loyal U.S. Marine desperate to prove his innocence or he will never go home again.

And the woman he loves and wants to save was trained to hate and kill Americans.

To follow this Blog via E-mail see upper left-hand column and click on “FOLLOW!”